The final Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register for the 2022 midterm election cycle has Republicans leading in almost every congressional and statewide race, including strong double-digit leads for key Republican incumbents.
Conducted by pollster J. Ann Selzer, the Iowa Poll found Governor Kim Reynolds leading Democrat Deidre DeJear by 17 points and Senator Chuck Grassley leading Democrat Mike Franken by 12 points. The poll also found Republicans leading Democrats by nine points in the first congressional district, two points in the second congressional district, three points in the third congressional district, and 29 points in the fourth congressional district.
The only silver lining for Democrats is the attorney’s general race, with the Iowa Poll finding the nearly 40-year incumbent Democrat Tom Miller leading Republican Brenna Bird by just two points, which falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.
The GOP’s strong showing in the poll has many operatives openly touting the possibility of a “clean Republican sweep” across all of Iowa’s top competitive races – including other statewide races such as for state auditor and treasurer, which were not examined by the Iowa Poll – citing how the Iowa Poll has historically underestimated Republican support.
“The Iowa Poll has historically underestimated the new GOP coalition’s strength – especially in early October,” Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said in a statement. “This fumble led to a massive influx of Coastal money flooding into Mike Franken’s coffers. Since the 2020 election, the Iowa GOP has grown our voter registration advantage from +10,547 to +61,750. The Democrat Party’s wokeness has made Iowans leave their party in droves.”
Republican confidence is also buoyed by the Biden administration’s handling of a litany of issues of key importance to voters, from the economy, inflation, education, crime, government overreach, to the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Polling in recent weeks have trended towards Republicans not just in Iowa, but even in reliable blue states such as New York.
“Lukewarm support for Democrats? No kidding,” a Republican National Committee spokesman said in an email release.
